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Trading on the Euro/dollar pair closed up on Thursday by exactly 100 pips. After leaving its 7-day range, the Euro appreciated against the dollar as far as 1.0983. The sense of euphoria at breaking the 1.0940 level blinded buyers to the growth in US 10Y bond yields and the drop in gold quotes.
Buyers enjoyed some support from the crosses and commodity currencies. Yesterday's drop in oil by 4.2% weighed negatively on the Aussie and Canadian dollars. Oil has dropped by 13% in the last 3 weeks. The situation is bordering on crisis.
US statistics:
Market expectations:
Today's (Friday) key event is the release of the US labour market report (NFP). I don't make predictions on payrolls day. There's a case to be made that assumptions of Emmanuel Macron's victory in the French election and a weak US labour report are behind yesterday's rally.
Day's news (GMT+3):
EURUSD rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView.
Intraday forecast: low: n/a, high: n/a, close: n/a.
Buyers obliterated 1.0940 level on Thursday and finally came out of the 7-day range. The targets from the sideways range are hovering around 1.1000 and 1.1010. From here, we could see a short-lived corrective phase.
If we start from the daily timeframe, there is a strong resistance passing through 1.1050 level. Now we must wait for the daily candlestick to close following today's payrolls and to see how the market opens on Monday after the second round of the French election. Judging by yesterday's surge, market participants are certain of an Emmanuel Macron victory. If the rate can break 1.1050, the 1.1300 level will come into clear view. Still, given that it's payrolls day, I'm not making any predictions.
