French Austerity Targets Could Threaten Eurozone Growth

by Michael Grogan, First Class Analytics

In an effort to bring the budget deficits of EU member countries down to a sustainable level, the European Commission has recently been placing significant pressure on France to reduce its deficit to a level of 4% by the end of 2015.

Ultimately, the goal is for France to reach a budget deficit of 2.8% by the end of 2017, which would bring the country below the generally accepted EU restriction of 3% of overall Gross Domestic Product.

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Source: Author

Indeed, France has taken measures to attempt to bring down its budget deficit.However, where the EU and France differ is the pace at which this should be achieved. For instance, Paris has set out slightly different guidelines than that being imposed by the EU, with a target of reducing the budget deficit to 4.1 percent of GDP this year, and further down to a level of 3.6 percent in 2016 (in contrast to the level of 3.4 percent set by Europe). In their own words, the European Commission has set the following guidelines for France (the full council recommendation can be read here):

  • “France should put an end to the present excessive deficit situation by 2017 at the latest”.
  • “France should reach a headline deficit of 4.0 % of GDP in 2015, 3.4 % of GDP in 2016 and 2.8 % of GDP in 2017, which is consistent with delivering an improvement in the structural balance of 0.5 % of GDP in 2015, 0.8 % of GDP in 2016 and 0.9% of GDP in 2017. This would require additional measures of 0.2 % of GDP in 2015, 1.2 % of GDP in 2016 and 1.3% of GDP in 2017 based on the extended Commission 2015 winter forecast”.
  • France should fully implement the already adopted measures for 2015 and ensure, by end April 2015, an additional fiscal effort as stipulated in paragraph (2). This would require the specification, adoption and implementation of additional structural discretionary measures equivalent to 0.2% of GDP to close the gap with the recommended improvement in the structural balance of 0.5 % of GDP for 2015″.
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