FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST FOR GOLD PRICE: NEUTRAL
Gold Analysis and Talking Points:
GOLD PRICES SEES ITS FIRST WEEKLY RISE IN A MONTH
Gold prices sees its first weekly rise in a month, gaining over 1.5% as the USD recovery comes to a halt following a rather uninspiring inflation report, whereby the core readings fell short of economic forecasts. As such, the pull back in the US Dollar from 2018 highs (93.42), coupled with the failure for prices to break below the 2018 range lows ($1301) had pushed the precious metal back above $1320. As we look ahead to next week, the view on gold prices is neutral as a lack of notable events could potentially lead to a rather subdued week.
US retail Sales will be the main economic data point for the week ahead, which is expected to see a modest dip to 0.3% in April from 0.6%. As from this, we will see the release of manufacturing and housing data from the US, however, this would unlikely provide too much price action for the greenback and thus have a limited impact on the precious metal. The lack of key economic releases further backs up the view that we could see gold trade sideways.
POSITIVE SIGN FOR GOLD PRICES
The recent breakout of the $1302-1317 neutral range and a close above $1320 provides positives for the precious metal, 100DMA at $1326 (also the 38.6% Fibonacci Retracement of the $1365-1301 fall) acts as resistance in the short-term. However, a consolidation above the 100DMA and the 38.6% Fib could provide the catalyst for higher prices, while on the downside, support is situated at $1317, breaching below would see gold back in the $1302-10 range. For now, no breakout is in sight for the yellow metal.
GOLD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIMEFRAME (November 2017-April 2017)
