There are many investors and observers who do not think the Fed ought to raise interest rates today.  

The Fed's targeted inflation measure, the core PCE deflator, stood at 1.3%, well below the 2% target. They see the fresh sell-off in oil prices and are more concerned disinflation than inflation. Over the past week or so, more concern has been expressed about the sell-off in the high yield bond market.  

Others are concerned about the strength of the dollar and the weakness abroad.  Some economists express concern about the lackluster growth. Rather than accelerate as the year progressed, the economy appears to be growing slower in H2 than it did in H1, despite the mere 0.6% annualized expansion in Q1. 

These doubts have given rise to speculation that the Fed will quickly realize the error of its ways and reverse the ill-conceived rate cut by the end of next year. Some argue that this is the same fate that has befallen every other high income central bank that has lifted rates since the crisis, including the ECB.  

Surveys of investors and economists do not lend credence to such pessimism. Perhaps one of the reasons why the Fed has delayed hiking rates this long, even though unemployment is a little lower than the start of the last tightening cycle (though the core PCE deflator is also a little lower) is to feel confident that it can begin a normalization cycle with minimal risk a one-and-done unprecedented cycle.  

The Great Graphic composed on Bloomberg shows the yield on 1, 3, 6 and 12 month US T-bills. The dramatic increase in US bill yields reflect two developments.The first is that following the bipartisan deal on the debt ceiling, the US Treasury began selling more bills. This is to say that part of the rise in bill yields is a reflection of supply considerations. There was pent up demand that could not be satisfied before as the debt management ahead of the debt ceiling led to a dearth of supply.