Greek Bailout Can’t Succeed Without Ending German Mercantilism

Greece has committed to more austerity and arduous reforms to keep the euro, but success requires equally significant but unlikely changes from Germany.

Since 2010, Greek taxes are up and government spending is down a combined 20 percent. As freshman macroeconomics would predict, that pushed down GDP by more than 25 percent and raised Greece's sovereign debt to GDP ratio from 130 to nearly 180 percent.

To bring debt under control, Greece must accomplish budget surpluses of at least 3.5 percent of GDP and annual economic growth and export surpluses of more than 4 percent through at least 2030.

That's the macroeconomic equivalent of completing a 70-yard touchdown pass in the final moments of the Super Bowl. Doable but highly unlikely without help from the opposition—for Athens that's Berlin.

To attract investment, stimulate growth and generate exports, the bailout program relies on economic reforms—making Greek labor markets more flexible and infusing more competition and efficiency into product markets such as for air and ferry transportation, energy, pharmacies and manufacturing.

The Eurozone is growing at a snail's pace and only this summer did GDP match pre-financial crisis levels; consequently, it has most of the capacity needed to meet customer demand for manufactures and tradeable services.

It is one thing for Greece to attract investment to add to European capacity when markets are expanding but quite another to persuade businesses with entrenched facilities in Bavaria to move those to the outskirts of Athens.

Some sectors, such as the rapidly changing information sector, do create new investment opportunities in Europe. However, although Greece's universities can train civil engineers to modernize its infrastructure and chemical engineers for its booming petroleum refining , Greece is hardly the place to study computer and software design—any nation needs those propagate high tech.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
No tags for this post.

Related posts

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *