It has been a few weeks since we took a hard look at initial unemployment claims. There hasn't been much reason to, since they seem to exist in a steady state universe, almost never deviating from the growth path they have been on for the past 5 years. But the steady state universe theory has long been discredited. Even though the Wall Street media propaganda machine wants us to believe in steady state financial markets, chances are we're headed for another Big Bang. Periods of stability such as the present create a false sense of complacency as the dangers grow.

The headline, fictional, seasonally adjusted (SA) number of initial unemployment claims for last week came in at 281,000. The Wall Street economist crowd consensus guess was almost right on the money at 283,000. The expectations game didn't provide much excitement for the players this week.

Instead of the seasonally manipulated headline number expectations game, we focus on the trend of the actual data. Facts and reality are much more useful than the Wall Street captured media's fantasy numbers. Actual claims were 344,002, which is another record low for this calendar week by a huge margin, continuing a nearly uninterrupted string of record lows that began in September 2013.

Employers in some sectors are hoarding workers. Similar behavior in the past has been associated with bubbles, and has led to massive retrenchment, usually within 18 months or so. In the housing bubble, similar behavior continued well beyond the peak of that bubble in 2005-06. Employers seem to take their cues from stock prices. The current string is now 4 months beyond the point at which other major bubbles have begun to deflate. Is the bungee cord simply longer this time, or is this the new paradigm?

The Department of Labor (DoL) reports the unmanipulated numbers that state unemployment offices actually count and report to the DoL each week. This week it said, “The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 344,002 in the week ending July 11, an increase of 40,416 (or 13.3 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected an increase of 59,887 (or 19.7 percent) from the previous week. There were 370,559 initial claims in the comparable week in 2014.”