Ignoring the storm-driven aberrations, this week's 10k jump in initial jobless claims to 249k signals a notable regime shift in the labor market. For the first time since 2016's growth scare, there are more Americans opening jobless claims than last year…

In fact, there are over 4% more people on initial jobless claims than this time last year…

Did the jobs market just turn?

And when claims turn, a recession follows…