After last week's jerk higher (now revised even higher to 314k), this week saw a modest 17k drop to 297k (magically back below the 300k Maginot Line) but still missed expectations. Obviously, initial claims still linger near 14 year lows but the smoother 4 week average rose around 5k to 299k. Continuing claims rose 39k and has hovered at these decade-long lows for 6 weeks now – though unadjusted Regular State (ex) employees claiming UI benefits jumped 125K from 2.065 million to 2.190 million. It appears the trend of improvement has ended/stabilized.