It appears the glorious trend of declining initial jobless claims has run its course. For the last 5 months, initial claims have oscillated around the crucial-to-the-narrative 300k level – breaking the constant downtrend of the last 4-5 years. Today's 298k print, up 17k from last week, is the same level seen in the 3rd week of July.

This is the highest 6mo. rise in initial claims since the middle of the Polar Vortex.