Written by Frank Holmes Of u.s. Global Investors
The start of baseball season is still several days away, but a recent survey conducted by Bank of America Merrill Lynch found that 59 percent of U.S. fund managers believe the current stretch of economic growth is in its “final innings.” This is the highest reading since the financial crisis in 2008.
As if to support this outlook, the Commerce Department released economic data last Friday that shows fourth-quarter 2015 corporate profits fell at their fastest rate since—you guessed it—the same period in 2008.
Even though year-over-year GDP growth in the fourth quarter was revised to 1.4 percent, up from 1 percent, profits tanked a substantial 11.5 percent. For the entire year, pretax earnings declined 3.1 percent.
This could end up being a speedbump for the U.S. economy. In the past, significant drops in corporate profits have acted like gravitational tugs on jobs growth, with companies cutting positions and putting a freeze on new hiring. We have yet to see this play out—jobs growth has been steady for 72 straight months, jobless claims have been falling and confidence in the labor market is at a nine-year high—but the divergence between profits and employment is something to keep an eye on.
This is no reason for investors to panic, however. When I look at the chart above, I see fairly regular cycles of economic activity, like the EKG readings of a reasonably healthy person. It's possible we're facing the final stage of this particular economic cycle, as a majority of fund managers suspect, but mean reversion could eventually bring conditions back to “normal.” Speaking to the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen called the U.S. economy “remarkably resilient,” and I agree with her.
It's also important to remember that this is the eighth year of a two-term presidency.
