Today's US economic releases – housing starts and business survey data for the manufacturing sector – suggest that the macro headwinds are increasing. It's premature to dismiss the numbers du jour, but the previously released reports in recent weeks – payrolls, retail sales, and industrial production – offer a sharply positive counterpoint. For the moment, the big picture for the US still looks encouraging, albeit slightly tarnished relative to what we knew 24 hours earlier. But before we consider the reasoning for maintaining a positive outlook on the US economy, let's briefly review the latest figures and then move on to considering if today's news add up to a genuine warning for the business cycle.

Let's begin with today's update on November residential construction. Housing starts fell a bit short of expectations, running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,028,000 last month, the Census Bureau reports. November's total fell 1.6% vs. the previous month, although it's worth pointing out that October's data was revised up by a modest degree. Meanwhile, newly issued building permits slumped last month as well, dipping 5.2% on a monthly basis. More troubling: the annual change, which looks worrisome on both counts. Starts fell 7% last month vs. the year-earlier level, the biggest annual decline in three years. Permits were more or less were flat in November in annual terms, but there's no getting around the fact that these two indicators overall are reflecting the weakest conditions for the housing trend since 2011. 

There are other ways to measure the health of the housing sector, of course, such as sales. But on this front too there are hints of trouble – existing home sales, for instance, have been sliding on a year-over-year basis, although the annual comparison turned mildly positive in October (for the first time this year). Bottom line, the housing trend overall is flat to negative at the moment, contributing limited support for the US economy relative to the recent past.