I recently wrote to you about a number of factors that show the stock market saw a major top back in May 2015.

The most glaring?

Small-cap stocks have diverged massively from large-cap since May. They're down 24% while large-caps are down only 12%. This is the classic sign that the dumb money is pouring in and the smart money is leaving.

subscribers an alert about this 30 minutes after the markets opened, telling them what is likely to happen next.

Few analysts are talking about this head and shoulders pattern… but even fewer are talking about the 800-pound gorilla in the room…

That is: earnings.

Look at this client survey from Citi Research, one of those few analyst groups along with us and our resident Forensic Accountant, John Del Vecchio, who are pointing to the gorilla.

As you can see, the number one risk – by far – is earnings, at 24.5%. Next, at 15.5%, is geopolitical risk, which I've been talking about for years now. My 35-Year Geopolitical Cycle is one of the four in my hierarchy of cycles which allow me to forecast with such accuracy. For me, that and China are the two biggest red flags on my radar, presenting the highest risk to us.

And, thanks to John, earnings became another of those red flags when he joined us to launch his service, Forensic Investor.

Other red flags flapping in the wind right now are the dollar and government policy management missteps in the shape of the Fed raising rates too fast. In particular, here's one that's particularly worrisome to me (if you're a sensitive reader, now would be the time to stop and move on with your day)…