Hurricanes continue to impact claims taking procedures in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Bloomberg / Econoday) were 239 K to 265 K (consensus 250,000), and the Department of Labor reported 220,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 250,750 (reported last week as 250,750) to 244,500. The rolling averages generally have been equal to or under 300,000 since August 2014.
Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims
This marks 145 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970. The general trend of the 4 week rolling average is a slowing rate of improvement year-over-year which historically suggests a slowing economy.
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4 week moving average. There is always some seasonality which migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons helps remove some seasonality. The four week rolling average of initial claims are 0.7 % lower (insignificantly better than the 0.6 % lower for last week) than they were in this same week in 2016.
Claim levels are at 40 year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending January 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of 41,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 261,000. This is the lowest level for initial claims since February 24, 1973 when it was 218,000. The 4-week moving average was 244,500, a decrease of 6,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 250,750. Claims taking procedures continue to be disrupted in the Virgin Islands. The claims taking process in Puerto Rico has still not returned to normal.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.4 percent for the week ending January 6, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending January 6 was 1,952,000, an increase of 76,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up 7,000 from 1,869,000 to 1,876,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,921,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 1,750 from 1,915,250 to 1,917,000.
