Jobs Growth Likely To Slow

Friday the Labor Department is expected to report the economy added 245,000 in December. That's down from 321,000 in November, and a slower economic growth will likely drag on jobs creation through much of 2015.

After a tough winter and brief economic contraction, the economy grew at a 4.8 pace the second and third quarters in 2014.

Going forward, household finances are in their best shape since the financial crisis and consumer spending should continue to lift the recovery. Also, much postponed business investment—for example in the commercial real estate and accompanying office fixtures and IT businesses—may be expected to boost growth.

However, weakening conditions in Europe and foreign governments' policies that artificially overvalue the dollar against the yuan, yen and euro will slow U.S. exports, especially for technology-intensive capital goods and software that compete with Chinese, Japanese and European offerings.

Lower oil prices cut two ways. Adding to household disposable income, those boost consumer spending on cars, appliances and household goods. However, lower oil prices adversely affect drilling activity, and more of the money spent by households at Wal-Mart likely ends up in Asia to pay for clothing and electronics than money spent by wildcatters searching for fossil fuels.

Overall growth should range between 2.5 and 3 percent in 2015, and that will not support jobs creation of more than 235,000 per month unless productivity growth is weak.

The jobless rate is down to 5.8 percent but that is deceptive. For example, one in six adult males between the ages of 25 and 54 is not working. Many don't show up in the unemployment count, because they are not actively looking for a job.

Since 2000, Congress has enhanced the , and expanded programs that provide direct benefits to low and middle income workers, including Obamacare and Medicaid, food stamps, and rent and mortgage assistance.

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