Jobs Jump In November But Outlook Remains Guarded

The economy added 321,000 jobs in November—a dramatic jump from October. Overall the economy is creating many more jobs, but the outlook remains guarded.

Unemployment stayed constant at 5.8 percent because the jobs count is based on the survey of employers, whereas unemployment is based on a direct household survey. The latter indicated many fewer jobs gains and the adult participation rate—those employed and looking for work as a share of the total adult population—stayed depressed.

Gains were widespread. Construction, manufacturing, retail trade, and professional services, finance, health care, leisure and hospitality, information technology, and government all added jobs.

Hourly earnings rose 0.4 percent—a much stronger pace than in recent months.

Job gains for October were revised upward to 243,000 and the overall stronger pace reflects the pickup in economic growth in the second and third quarters, which averaged 4.2 percent.

Still forecasters expect the pace of GDP advance to moderate to between 2.5 and 3 percent going forward, indicating the surge in jobs growth could be short lived.

Consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 70 percent of GDP, continues to grow at only a moderate pace. Household balance sheets have improved since the great recession—housing and stock prices are up and many families have worked off credit card debt—but those tough times have inspired a new caution among consumers.

The official jobless rate is down from its recession peak of 10 percent, because so many adults have quit looking for work. If the same percentage of adults were employed or looking for work today as when Presidents Obama or George W. Bush took office, the jobless rate would be nearly 10 and 12 percent, respectively.

Nearly 1 in 6 men between ages 25 and 54—too old for college and too young to retire—are jobless. Many are simply sitting on America's new virtual park bench—at watching ESPN and relying on friends and relatives for support.

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