Earlier today the National Association of Realtors released the June data for their Pending Home Sales Index. The NAR reports that “after five consecutive months of increases, pending home sales slipped in June but remained near May's level, the highest in over nine years” (more here). The chart below gives us a snapshot of the index since 2001.
Over this time frame, the US population has grown by 13.2%. For a better look at the underlying trend, here is an overlay with the nominal index and the population-adjusted variant. The focus is pending home sales growth since 2001.
The index for the most recent month is 13% below its all-time high in 2005. The population-adjusted index is 20% off its 2005 high.
Pending versus Existing Home Sales
The NAR explains that “because a home goes under contract a month or two before it is sold, the Pending Home Sales Index generally leads Existing Home Sales by a month or two.” Here is a growth overlay of the two series. The general correlation, as expected, is close. And a close look at the numbers supports the NAR's assessment that their pending sales series is a leading index.
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