March 2017 Headline Existing Home Growth Pace Quickens

The headlines for existing sales growth pace declined improved saying “finding available properties to buy continues to be a strenuous task for many buyers, there was enough of a monthly increase in listings in March for sales to muster a strong gain”. Our analysis of the unadjusted data agrees.

Analyst Opinion of Existing Home Sales

This was a good month for home sales which makes up for the poor month last month. Note that the sales rate of homes over the last year is averaging about 5% growth year over year.

Econintersect Analysis

  • Unadjusted sales rate of growth accelerated 8.0 % month-over-month, up 8.3 % year-over-year – sales growth rate trend accelerated using the 3 month moving average.
  • Unadjusted price rate of growth decelerated 0.3 % month-over-month, up 5.3 % year-over-year – price growth rate trend accelerated using the 3 month moving average.
  • The homes for sale inventory marginally grew this month, remains historically low for Marchs, and is down 6.6 % from inventory levels one year ago).
  • NAR reported:

  • Sales up 4.4 % month-over-month, up 5.9 % year-over-year.
  • Prices up 6.8 % year-over-year
  • The market expected annualized sales volumes of 5.485 M to 5.800 M (consensus 5.605 million) vs the 5.71 million reported.

  • The graph below presents unadjusted home sales volumes.

    Here are the headline words from the NAR analysts:Added Yun, “Bolstered by”Last month's swift price gains and the remarkably short time a home was on the market are directly the result of the homebuilding industry's struggle to meet the dire need for more new homes,” said Yun. “A growing pool of all types of buyers is competing for the lackluster amount of existing homes on the market. Until we see significant and sustained multi-month increases in housing starts, prices will continue to far outpace incomes and put pressure on those trying to buy.” strong consumer confidence and underlying demand, home sales are up convincingly from a year ago nationally and in all four major regions despite the fact that buying a home has gotten more expensive over the past year.”

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