Market Seasonality Maps

The first thing to note about seasonality however is that it is imperfect, and can break down at times. That's why I often say that seasonality should probably be one of the final factors you look at. So for example if there was a compelling valuation case, and variables like sentiment, monetary policy etc were all bullish and the seasonal tendency was also positive it would be a useful confirming indicator or something to add to the case from a tactical standpoint. Other than that it can also be useful information from a risk management standpoint e.g. if you are long an asset into a seasonally weak period.

The main takeaways and rules of thumb on cross asset seasonality are:

-Traditionally known as defensive assets, gold and treasuries seasonally perform well during the period where stocks perform the worst (which lines up with that intuition/rule of thumb).

-The US dollar index tends to do well in the first quarter, and bonds tend to do poorly.

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