OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
September E-mini S&Ps (ESU15 +0.66%) are up +0.44% led by strength in energy producers as crude oil (CLU15 +0.57%) gained. The markets will look to this morning's Jul ADP employment change to gauge the strength of the U.S. labor market that may provide clues as to when the Fed will begin to raise interest rates. European stocks are up +1.06% at a 2-week high, led by a rally in bank stocks, as Societe Generale SA jumped over 8% after posting its highest profit since the financial crisis. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.46%, Hong Kong +0.44%, China -1.65%, Taiwan +0.37%, Australia -0.42%, Singapore +0.01%, South Korea -0.18%, India +0.54%. Japanese stocks rose on better-than-expected company quarterly earnings results as the Nikkei Stock Index posted a 2-week high, while China's Shanghai Composite closed lower as a total of 515 mainland Chinese companies remain halted from trading due to trading curbs.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.14%) is up +0.16% at a 3-1/4 month high on speculation the Fed may raise interest rates as soon as September after Atlanta Fed President Lockhart on Tuesday said the Fed was “close” to raising interest rates. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.11% at a 2-week low after Eurozone Jun retail sales fell by the most in 9 months. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is unchanged.
Sep T-note prices (ZNU15 -0.29%) are down -11 ticks on negative carry-over from comments made Tuesday by Atlanta Fed President Lockhart who said he would only endorse putting off an interest rate increase if there was a “significant deterioration” in economic data.
Eurozone Jun retail sales fell -0.6% m/m, more than expectations of -0.2% m/m and the largest decline in 9 months. On an annual basis. Jun retail sales rose +1.2% y/y, less than expectations of +2.0% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (previous +0.8% with purchase sub-index -0.1% and refi sub-index +1.6%), (2) July ADP employment (expected +215,000, Jun +237,000), (3) June trade deficit (expected -$43.0 billion, May -$41.87 billion), (4) final-Jul Markit U.S. services PMI (expected unrevised at 55.2, prelim-Jul +0.4 to 55.2), (5) July ISM non-manufacturing PMI (expected +0.2 to 56.2, Jun +0.3 to 56.0).
