OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
The markets are generally confident that centrist Emmanuel Macron will win Sunday's French presidential against far-right Marine Le Pen since the polls are holding steady at a wide margin of about 60%-40%. That spread is much wider than the 1-3 point poll spreads for the Brexit and Trump votes, meaning that an upset by Ms. Le Pen would be far more difficult than it was in the case of Brexit and Trump. The latest betting odds at Oddchecker are 91%-14% in favor of Mr. Macron.
Asian stocks today closed mostly lower, led by a -0.78% drop in the Shanghai Composite. Chinese stocks were hit again today by concern about the government's crackdown on leverage and also about Thursday's rout in commodities. Other Asian stock markets today closed mostly lower: Hong Kong -0.84%, Taiwan -0.68%, Australia -0.68%, Singapore +0.03%, India -0.89%. The Japanese and South Korean stock markets were closed today for holidays.
There are some geopolitical tensions this morning after an overnight claim by North Korea that the CIA and South Korean intelligence tried to assassinate Kim Jong-un with a “bio-chemical attack.” That charge was likely just paranoid propaganda but North Korea could nevertheless be planning to use the charge as a justification for another weapons test or some other type of provocation.
