Thursday evening's public discussion between Fed Chairman Janet Yellen and former chairmen Volcker, Greenspan, and Bernanke – these last three in order of gravitas and effectiveness and (perhaps not unrelatedly) reverse order of academic accomplishment – was a first. Never before, apparently, have four current and former Fed chairmen appeared on the same stage. This is less amazing than it seems: prior to Alan Greenspan it was the practice of the federal reserve to remain out of the limelight.
Honestly, we all probably would have been better off had they stayed there.
Still, it was a fascinating event. The International House, which hosted the event, called it the “Fabulous Four Fed chairs,” but since they did not serve contemporaneously a better image is probably Mount Rushmore…if Mount Rushmore had the faces by Nixon, Hoover, Carter, and Andrew Johnson instead of Washington, Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, and Thomas Jefferson.
Okay, all bond guys have a soft spot for Paul Volcker, who was the last Fed Chairman to try monetarism and managed to break the back of inflation using its common-sense prescription. But he should have stayed retired. The Volcker Rule has sucked a tremendous amount of liquidity out of the market (in conjunction with other Dodd-Frank rules) and is clearly a stain on his resumé.
Everyone was hoping that this collection of experienced policymakers would give us some clear consensus about what the Fed should do now – raise rates as per the original path that was implied? Raise rates more slowly? Maintain rates? Keep on adding liquidity? Instead, there was almost nothing useful to be gleaned from the conversation. The three ex-chairmen seemed to be competing to make the funniest statement (some intentionally, and some unintentionally like Bernanke's statement that “unwinding the balance sheet is very straightforward”) without saying anything constructive, challenging, or even useful about current and future Fed policy; Yellen seemed to want to say useful things but it isn't clear she has anything useful to say.
