Nonfarm Payrolls +252K; Unemployment 5.6%; Employed +111,000 (Household Survey)

Initial Reaction 

The big surprise in this month's report was a decline in average hourly earnings. Details below.

For the second straight month there has been a huge discrepancy between the household survey and the establishment jobs survey. Swings in household survey employment and the labor force have been wild lately. 

Last month household survey employment rose by 4,000 while the payroll survey had job gains of 321,000 (revised up this month to 353,000). This month the household survey shows a modest gain in employment of 111,000 vs. a payroll survey of 252,000 jobs.

The unemployment rate dropped this month primarily because 273,000 people dropped out of the labor force.

Once again we are in a situation where the establishment survey and the household survey are at odds. Over time these fluctuations tend to smooth out. The question, as always, is “in which direction”.

BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance 

  • Nonfarm Payroll: +252,000 – Establishment Survey
  • Employment: +111,000 – Household Survey
  • Unemployment: -383,000 – Household Survey
  • Involuntary Part-Time Work: -61,000 – Household Survey
  • Voluntary Part-Time Work: -241,000 – Household Survey
  • Baseline Unemployment Rate: -0.2 at 5.6% – Household Survey
  • U-6 unemployment: -0.2 to 11.2% – Household Survey
  • Civilian Non-institutional Population: +183,000
  • Civilian Labor Force: -273,000 – Household Survey
  • Not in Labor Force: +456,000 – Household Survey
  • Participation Rate: -0.2 at 62.7 – Household Survey
  • December 2014 Employment Report 

    Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) November 2014 Employment Report.

    Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 252,000 in December, and the unemployment rate declined to 5.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, construction, food services and drinking places, health care, and manufacturing.

    Unemployment Rate – Seasonally Adjusted

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