US Census says manufacturing new orders declined. Our analysis agrees. The data has been soft for three months in a row. Consider that this data is noisy – but the rolling averages (which include transport) are decelerating. 

3 Month Rolling Average – Unadjusted Manufacturing New Orders (blue line), Inflation Adjusted New Orders from the Unadjusted Data (red line)

US Census Headline:

Econintersect Analysis:

Seasonally Adjusted Manufacturing Value of New Orders – All (red line, left axis), All except Defense (green line, left axis), All with Unfilled Orders (orange line, left axis), and all except transport (blue line, right axis)

The graph below shows sector growth year-over-year.

Year-over-Year Change Manufacturing New Orders – Unadjusted (blue line) and Inflation Adjusted (red line)

Now look at the manufacturing component of industrial production. While it is true that these are slightly different pulse points (inventory not accounted in shipments) – they should not have different trends for long periods of time. Although the general trend is mixed – but in narrow channels.