Thoughts

1 am: S&P 500 dividend yield fell below the 3 month Treasury bill rate for the first time in 10 years. NOT medium-long term bearish for the stock market.

Bears see this as a medium-long term bearish sign for the stock market because “investors will switch from stocks to bonds”. It isn't. The bears are wrong on 2 levels:

1 am: Some short term technical weakness in the stock market.

A small pullback in the stock market here (i.e. for a few days) would be normal.

Small cap stocks (Russell 2000) are facing resistance at previous highs right now.

Large cap stocks (Dow) have gone up 8 days in a row. The Dow is currently at its 50% retracement (resistance level).

I think the pullback could bring the S&P 500 to retest its previous resistance trendline (approximately 2700).

Please take my short term thoughts on the stock market with a grain of salt. I focus on the medium-long term.

1 am: Earnings growth will probably peak later this year. Then will become a medium-long term bearish factor for the stock market in the 2nd half of 2019.