Goldman forecasts nonfarm payroll growth of 215k in September, above consensus expectations of 200k by about 0.3 standard deviations of a typical surprise. Noting that August payrolls were likely distorted downward by seasonal bias last month and may be revised up, Goldman expects the unemployment rate to remain flat at 5.1% (and earnings growth to slow). Howver, judging by the collapse in September's regional Fed surveys, today's “most important” payrolls data ever could be a massive miss.
As Goldman Sachs details,
We forecast nonfarm payroll job growth of 215k in September, which would be a roughly 0.3 standard deviation surprise to consensus expectations of 200k. The employment components of business surveys were softer on net this month, but ADP surprised on the upside, reported job availability improved slightly, and government employment gains should again make an above-trend contribution.Overall, we expect a gain roughly in line with the 212k average seen so far in 2015.
Arguing for a stronger report:
