Next week's “advance” GDP report (due on July 30) for the second quarter is projected to show that the US economy increased 1.9% (seasonally adjusted annual rate),  based on The Capital Spectator's average estimate for several econometric-based forecasts. Today's updated average forecast, which is slightly above last month's Q2 estimate, marks a rebound after Q1's 0.2% decline.

Some analysts are expecting a substantially stronger rise in Q2 GDP. BMO Capital Markets, for instance, on July 17 projected that GDP will advance 3.0% in next week's update from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. By contrast, The Capital Spectator's average 1.9% estimate is at the low end of Q2 predictions.

But virtually all the forecasts are united in projecting a revival in growth for Q2, albeit to a modest pace in most cases. The widely followed GDPNow data from the Atlanta Fed, for example, is anticipating Q2 growth of 2.4%, according to the bank's July 17 outlook.

Here's a summary of The Capital Spectator's Q2:2015 estimate vs. recent history and forecasts from various sources:

Here are the various forecasts that are used to calculate CapitalSpectator.com's average estimate:

As updated estimates are published, based on incoming economic data, the chart below tracks the changes in the evolution of The Capital Spectator's projections.

Finally, here's a brief profile for each of The Capital Spectator's GDP forecast methodologies:

R-4: This estimate is based on a multiple regression in R of historical GDP data vs. quarterly changes for four key economic indicators: real personal consumption expenditures (or real retail sales for the current month until the PCE report is published), real personal income less government transfers, industrial production, and private non-farm payrolls. The model estimates the statistical relationships from the early 1970s to the present. The estimates are revised as new data is published.