Quicker Growth Not Improving Jobs Outlook

The Labor Department reported the added 215,000 jobs in July. That's well below the 260,000 monthly additions posted in 2014, and new employment opportunities and wage gains will continue depressed for the balance of this year and next.

Previously the Commerce Department reported GDP grew 2.3 percent in the second quarter. That figure will likely be revised up to 3 percent, but stronger economic growth is not translating into a more encouraging labor market

Importantly, U.S. manufacturers—where the best untapped potential for well-paying jobs remain—are burdened by an artificially strong dollar and skill shortages.

China, South Korea, Japan and Germany target the value of their currencies against the dollar through direct intervention or explicit limits on inward foreign investment. Those jurisdictions domicile the principal competitors for U.S. exports and import competing industries. But for the overvalued dollar, the U.S. economy could add some 4 million jobs directly in manufacturing and through multiplier effects in the services more highly paid factory workers would purchase.

In the current overvalued dollar environment, the strongest remaining area for potential jobs growth is in high value added manufacturing—for example, in advanced materials and metallurgy, chemicals, aircraft and components, advanced electronic components, robotics, and makers of equipment such as numerically controlled machine tools.

Along with logistics and supply chain management, those industries need more workers with skills in process controls, computer programming and the like that have a year or two of post-high school training.

Most of those specialties are in short supply because opportunities for training are limited and many young people shun blue collar careers. Instead, they enroll at colleges hoping to land professional employment. Unfortunately, the economy has more college graduates than it needs, as witnessed by the many underemployed at Starbucks and similar venues.

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