Just a few days ago, president Obama made the farcical claim Putin Hasn't ‘Rolled Me,' Economic Sanctions on Russia Have Worked.
In an interview with CNN, the president said economic sanctions on Moscow are working, crediting the American-led effort with a downturn in Russia's economy and the decline of its currency. Even though Russia has yet to pull back from its aggressive posture in Ukraine, Mr. Obama denied that his policy has been ineffective, saying that his slow and steady course is better than the notion of “shooting first and thinking about it second.”
Worked How?
Is collapse of the ruble, more associated with the collapse of oil than sanctions, proof of anything? If so, what about the collapse of Ukraine? What about the collapse in European trade with Russia?
Does one measure pain in a one-sided manner? If Russia loses a leg and Europe an arm, is that winning or is it just plain stupid?
Let's explore that question with a viewpoint from three sources:
Lifschultz forwarded his email to Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase; William Harrison, Former CEO of Chase; and Stephen Schwarzman, CEO and Co-Founder of Blackstone.
Wrecking Russia's Economy Could Spell Disaster for the West
The Guardian proposes Wrecking Russia's Economy Could be a Disaster for the West
Like a rudderless ship running out of fuel and buffeted in an icy storm, the Russian economy looks as if it is heading for a crash. All the graphs – the rouble-dollar rate, the slump in GDP, bank interest rates, oil prices – look like menacing icebergs. The only question seems to be how long the ship can stay afloat.
As for the west's sanctions, they were introduced with one explicit aim – to force Putin to change tack in Ukraine. At least, that was the stated aim. But since the measures show no sign of having any effect on his thinking, and yet the west is considering even more sanctions, there is obviously another goal – to punish Putin for his actions, regardless of whether he changes his mind. Sadly, it is not Putin who feels this punishment. It is the Russian people.
The west imposed sanctions on Putin's “cronies” and Russian banks because of the invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea; and Putin responded by banning the import of western foodstuffs.
To keep repeating the same mistake again and again and expecting different results is, as they say, a sign of madness. And if by doing so you punish only ordinary Russian people, then it is also cruel – and counterproductive. Twenty years ago the dream was to rescue the former communist world and bring prosperity and democracy to its people. What we are doing now is impoverishing and alienating the Russians.
We can, of course, stick to our guns and insist that “sanctions are having an effect”. But what will we gain if the only effect is to destroy the Russian economy?
The solution is clear. Abandon the missile shield. End the expansion of Nato. And think boldly about a new security arrangement for the whole of Europe – one that will bring Russia in rather than leaving it outside feeling vulnerable. If this were done, everything I know about Putin and Russia tells me the crisis over Ukraine would be solved – and the Russian economy would not end up being needlessly destroyed, causing woe and bitterness among its people. If it is not done, we will have to deal with a resentful Russia for decades – for Putin's successors will also demand security.
Viewing Russia From the Inside
Stratfor writer George Friedman writes about Viewing Russia From the Inside.
