Should I Buy A House In 2015?

Readers often ask me if now is a good time to buy a house. This question has appeared in my inbox for the past nine years, as the Housing Bubble reached its climax, burst, and an Echo Bubble arose in its place.

It's a tough question, as you know, for reasons that are inherent to buying and owning real estate, and to the uniqueness of every household's finances and needs. So I always start by saying I can't offer any advice or even suggestions, because everyone's situation is unique.

In many cases, readers are seeking reassurance that it's OK to buy a house for reasons other than financial: they're having another child, their parents need them close at hand, and so on.

This is the dual nature of housing: it is both an enormous financial commitment and home/shelter.

The problem with being an enormous financial commitment is two-fold:

1. The size of the financial commitment outweighs every other expense and risk of capital. , property taxes and maintenance typically consume more of the household budget than any other item.

2. Housing is illiquid and the transaction costs are high. If I want to sell $200,000 of shares, the cost is a trivial sum and the transactions is completed in a few seconds, as Apple stock, like most large corporate shares, is highly liquid.

If I want to sell a $200,000 house, the process typically takes months and costs between 7% and 10% of the asking price in commissions, closing costs and fees.

Should I buy a house in 2015? Rather than seek a yes/no answer, let's try to identify some key reference points to consider.

1. Length of occupancy. If somebody buys a house with a fixed-rate mortgage and has a realistic plan to live in the house for 20+ years, fluctuations in value and demand don't matter much.

2. The potential consequences of a decline in value if the Echo Bubble pops. If, on the other hand, somebody is buying a house that they plan to sell in a few years to fund their retirement, that's a very different set of risks.

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