Solar stocks followed SolarCity (SCTY) down after the company reported its fourth quarter results and gave guidance for the first quarter and fiscal 2016.
WHAT'S NEW: SolarCity reported Q4 earnings per share of ($2.37) against analyst expectations of ($2.59), and Q4 revenue of $115M, against consensus estimates of $105.62M. The company reported Q4 installations up 54% to 272 mega watts. Q4 commercial installations were up 82% to 51 MW while residential installations were up 49% to 221 MW. Operating Lease and Solar Energy Incentive revenue was up 53% to $75M in Q4. SolarCity sees Q1 adjusted EPS ($2.65)-($2.55), against analyst expectations of ($2.36). The company sees Q1 installations up 18% year-over-year to 180 MW. This represents a higher-than-usual seasonal slowdown due to decision to end Nevada operations and renewed focus on cash conversion cycle, particularly in longer lead-time commercial projects. The company also continues to target 1.25 gigawatts installed in FY16. The company noted that the ITC extension provides growth tailwinds.
WHAT'S NOTABLE: In the earnings press release, management noted, “We closed out a strong 2015 with installations growing 73% to a record 870 MW and costs falling to new lows, though we fell short of our installation goals more than once. We are not happy with these results, and recognize our need to revamp our guidance methodology to avoid any potential shortfalls going forward. Notably, residential has consistently performed above our expectations over the last year, and we missed guidance largely on commercial installations. While we had expected the introduction in mid-2015 of a new guidance methodology that incorporated only commercial projects that were already under construction to minimize risk, clearly this wasn't sufficient. With larger projects, particularly ground-mount, this methodology still leaves sufficient time for delays to push construction past deadlines. Going forward, we plan on removing from guidance any large projects with construction deadlines late in the quarter.”