Since the beginning of this year, Wall Street economists and analysts have been consistently prognosticating that following the Federal Reserve's latest bond buying campaign, economic growth would gather steam and interest rates would begin to rise. This has consistently been the wrong call as I discussed in April of this year in “Interest Rate Predictions Meet Bob Farrell's Rule #9:”
“An interesting article hit my inbox this morning from WSJ MarketWatch which was titled ‘100% Of Economists Think Yields Will Rise Within 6 Months' From the article:
‘Economists are unwavering in their assessment of where yields are headed in the next half year.
Jim Bianco, of Bianco Research, points out in a market comment Tuesday that asurvey of 67 economists this month shows every single one of them expects the 10-year Treasury yield to rise in the next six-months.‘
This is very striking from the standpoint that a separate poll of economists showed that there were none, zero, nada expecting an economic contraction either.
With literally 100% of all surveyed economists bullish on the economy, it suggests that there is nothing but clear sailing ahead for investors. Of course, it is also important to remember that it was this same group of “economists” that have been predicting the return of economic growth and higher interest rates for the last three years, as well. As we enter into the sixth year of the current economic expansion the unanimous ‘bullish bias' is indeed fascinating.”
Almost 18-months ago, after interest rates initially spiked from historic lows, I began writing then that the bond “bull” market was not yet over despite the litany of articles and punditry claiming otherwise. Furthermore, I stated that interest rates would be lower in the future as the three primary ingredients needed for higher rates were missing: rising inflation, increased wage growth and economic acceleration.