T2108 Update – A Surprising Bullish Divergence

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are occasionally posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag. T2107 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs)

T2108 Status: 37.5%
T2107 Status: 387%
VIX Status: 12.1
General (Short-term) Trading Call: Neutral
Active T2108 periods: Day #195 over 20%, Day #3 over 30% (overperiod), Day #10 under 40%, Day #50 under 50%, Day #67 under 60%, Day #266 under 70%

Reference Charts (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
S&P 500 or SPY
SDS (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
U.S. Dollar Index (volatility index)
EEM (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)
VIX (volatility index)
VXX (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
EWG (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
CAT (Caterpillar).

Commentary
The important turn-around in the stock market that I described on Tuesday, July 28, 2015 continued one more day as the S&P 500 (SPY) managed to break above its 50-day moving average (DMA) yet again. The once again delivered calm, solace, and comfort to financial markets even as the latest statement on monetary policy provided no clues on the timing for lift-off for interest rates. The S&P 500 stalled over the last two days.

 

The S&P 500 is back to its chopping ways

Interestingly, while the S&P 500 closed marginally lower to end the week, T2108 had a VERY strong day. T2108 closed up a startling 10.2%! This was a very surprising bullish divergence. I could not casually identify what group of stocks did so well to cause T2108 to diverge so strongly from the index. The Nasdaq (QQQ) closed flat after fading from its highs. Ditto for the Guggenheim S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP). Notably, the iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) closed up 0.6%, but this hardly seems enough to drive such a strong move for T2108. Even T2107, the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs, had a strong day with a 4.5% gain. If the market experiences buying follow-through on Monday, I will consider it a confirmation of a definitive bullish bias and turn for the market.

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