(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are occasionally posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag. T2107 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs)
T2108 Status: 43.2%
T2107 Status: 33.3%
VIX Status: 14.8
General (Short-term) Trading Call: neutral
Active T2108 periods: Day #44 over 20%, Day #43 over 30%, Day #1 over 40% (ending 11 day under 40%) (overperiod), Day #3 below 50% (underperiod), Day #17 und8r 60%, Day #358 under 70%
Reference Charts (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
S&P 500 or SPY
SDS (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
U.S. Dollar Index (volatility index)
EEM (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)
VIX (volatility index)
VXX (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
EWG (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
CAT (Caterpillar).
IBB (iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology).
Commentary
Once again, T2108 dropping below 40%, particularly in rapid fashion, was enough to generate a quick rebound. This rebound was apparently catalyzed by a strong u.s. jobs report. However, I think it may be more appropriate to just say this rebound represents a simple reversal of the angst going into the jobs number – angst that was suddenly starved of further fuel.
I said the following in the last T2108 Update in preparation for Friday's trading action:
“The next catalyst for the market is the U.S. jobs report for November. Just as the market was primed to react poorly to bad news the previous day, it is now primed to react very well to good news. I honestly have no idea anymore whether a strong jobs report will be interpreted as good or bad by the market at this juncture where a rate hike seems like a done deal. I will be in reaction mode, not prediction mode.”