T2108 Update – Relief From Fear

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are sometimes posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag. T2107 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs)

T2108 Status: 37.4% (almost an 11 percentage point gain!)
T2107 Status: 43.0%
VIX Status: 19.4
General (Short-term) Trading Call: With S&P 500 closing above 50DMA, ALL bullish trades are OK with tight stops. More caveats below.
Active T2108 periods: Day #42 over 20%, Day #1 above 30% (overperiod ending 2 days under 30%), Day #4 under 40%, Day #6 under 50%, Day #10 under 60%, Day #112 under 70%

Reference Charts (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
S&P 500 or SPY
SDS (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
U.S. Dollar Index (volatility index)
EEM (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)
VIX (volatility index)
VXX (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
EWG (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
CAT (Caterpillar).

Commentary
“Relief from fear” is the best way I can describe the trading on Wednesday, December 17th. If you have been following along these past several days and weeks, hopefully you profited from the golden setup that the December Federal Reserve meeting provided.

I could not have asked for a better open to the day. I practically jumped out my seat when I saw the best news possible coming from Digital River (DRIV):

“On December 16, 2014, Digital River, Inc. (“Digital River”) and Microsoft Corporation (“Microsoft”) entered into the Seventh Omnibus Amendment to the Microsoft Operations Digital Distribution Agreement dated September 1, 2006 (the “Seventh Omnibus Amendment”). The Seventh Omnibus Amendment extends the term of Microsoft Operations Digital Distribution Agreement to March 31, 2017 (the “Expiration Date”). Additionally, Microsoft may extend the Expiration Date for up to four (4) separate six (6) month renewal terms.”

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