(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are sometimes posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag. T2107 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs)
T2108 Status: 62.2% (2-day decline of 20% qualifies for quasi-oversold status)
T2107 Status: 52.0%
VIX Status: 12.5
General (Short-term) Trading Call: Hold bullish positions. Aggressive bears should have stopped out on fresh all-time highs. (That is the risk you take here!)
Active T2108 periods: Day #32 over 20%, Day #30 over 30%, Day #27 over 40%, Day #25 over 50%, Day #1 over 60%, Day #102 under 70%
Reference Charts (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
S&P 500 or SPY
SDS (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
U.S. Dollar Index (volatility index)
EEM (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)
VIX (volatility index)
VXX (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
EWG (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
CAT (Caterpillar).
Commentary
I am bullish yet even *I* am surprised to see the S&P 500 (SPY) already printing a fresh all-time high. Just two days ago, I was bracing for bearish follow-through selling to a topping pattern. Instead, sellers absolutely failed to capture the imagination of the market as buyers went right back to work snapping up early holiday season “bargains.”
The trend remains our friend as the S&P 500 prints yet another marginal all-time high
Even Caterpillar (CAT) shocked me by jumping above $100 before hitting my lower price target first. Although the stock faded hard from its high of the day, CAT still put on a convincing enough show to suggest the 50DMA will be support for now.