T2108 Update – The “Fleckenstein Indicator” Flashes Bright Red

T2108 Status: 36.1%
T2107 Status: 37.5%
VIX Status: 12.5 (was as low as 10.9!!!)
General (Short-term) Trading Call: Neutral
Active T2108 periods: Day #198 over 20%, Day #6 over 30% (overperiod), Day #13 under 40%, Day #53 under 50%, Day #70 under 60%, Day #269 under 70%

Reference Charts (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
S&P 500 or SPY
SDS (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
U.S. Dollar Index (volatility index)
EEM (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)
VIX (volatility index)
VXX (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
EWG (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
CAT (Caterpillar).

Commentary
As I feared, the surprise bullish divergence that ended July amounted to little. August started trading with follow-through selling, not reversal buying. The selling continued into a minor breakdown below the 50-day moving average (DMA) on Tuesday. The S&P 500 (SPY) finally broke the losing streak on Wednesday (August 5, 2015), but the index experienced a strong fade back to the 50DMA.

 

Back to regularly scheduled programming as the S&P 500 chops around its 50DMA pivot

The relative calm of the S&P 500 continues to surprise me given the number of high-profile stocks that have experienced post-earnings plunges. The market is particularly unfazed by the on-going collapse in commodities. Moreover, the volatility index, the VIX, is scratching at multi-year lows and plunged below 11 before rallying on the day.

Most fascinating is that both T2108 and T2107 (the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs) continue to languish below 40% even as the S&P 500 trades within “spitting distance” of its all-time high. The readings on T2108 and T2107 mean that the majority of stocks in the stock market are WEAK relative to important moving averages. As more and more leaders tumble, the market is more and more propped up by fewer and fewer stocks. This is a VERY precarious situation.

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