The 2016 GOP Battle Heats Up

As the competition for a 2016 presidential nomination heats up, the Republican Party will be split on several issues.

On foreign policy, the battle between the hawks and libertarian doves will be a critical factor.

Then, in terms of monetary policy, one faction is happy with current Fed practices. The other wants radical change, or even an end to the Fed.

If a Republican wins the presidency, whichever side gets the nomination will be a key factor in our economic trajectory for the following four years.

In fact, depending on the outcome, we could see the Fed eradicated entirely.

Where We Are Right Now…

Since 2008, the Fed has pursued monetary policies far outside previous norms, with real interest rates well below zero and almost $4 trillion of Fed bond purchases.

Ben Bernanke and the Fed's supporters believe these policies have brought economic recovery. Yet the policies' opponents believe the Fed has decapitalized the economy, excessively rewarded the Wall Street banks, brought about stock market and asset bubbles, and could potentially lead to uncontrollable inflation.

Generally, supporters of President Obama have naturally been supporters of the Fed's loose money policies, even though Bernanke was a Republican appointed by then-President George W. Bush in late 2005.

Among Republicans, there have been two camps: 1) people generally from the “establishment wing” who supported the Fed's policies because Wall Street and big were on board, and 2) people who were largely (but not entirely) associated with the “Tea Party” who thought that these policies were dangerous and wanted them reversed.

Now, to help predict how the coming nominations will turn out, let's take a look at how things shaped up in the past…

Glimpse Back to 2012

Before the 2012 election, there was a general consensus among Republican nomination candidates that Fed policies should change. Although there were differences in degree.

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