For the last 5 months, the miners have basically oscillated within the same general region, while the metals have made lower lows. But none of the charts seem to have completed their respective downside structures. 

I think we have all been worn to the nub and are quite tired of these back and forth machinations. I know I certainly am quite tired of the corrective patterns we have been enduring for the last few months. But, unfortunately, this is our lot in life until the market choses to make its way to its final lows. So, until the market is able to move up through the lows made in early 2015 in impulsive fashion, we are likely going to see lower lows before we complete this long term correction.

Since before we even topped in 2011, I had been warning that this correction could take us back down towards the $1,000 level, and can even drop as deeply as the $700 region before it is over. As it stands right now, I am having a hard time seeing any set up which will break the $1,000 level based upon the patterns as they are currently structured. However, there is a strong Fibonacci retracement target region between the $875-900 region should we break the $1,000 region, with the one below it in the $700 region. 

Yet, my feeling is that if we really do break the $1,000 region it will likely be within an “over-emotional” event, as I have noted before, and that can develop into a waterfall-like event that takes us to our extreme lower target below. So, I am personally saving some amount of “dry-powder” to deploy in that event, or will use it to buy a wave ii retracement once the bull market resumes in 2016 if we do not reach those extreme lower lows.

But, for now, it is hard for me to see any set up that will actually break the $1,000 level, which will likely surprise most market participants since it seems the majority are waiting for that break down below $1,000 to buy into the market.It is for this reason that I believe that it will either not happen, or the break will be significant and scare many of those waiting to buy below $1,000 from actually buying as it heads down to the “over-emotional” level near $700.