Once a week I like to step back and look at the big picture.

Stock prices ran up too high through the end of January, and now stocks are struggling to maintain high valuations while oil prices and interest rates tick higher.

technology stock prices don't like higher oil and higher rates, and we can see that now in the charts. The Semiconductors look vulnerable, and that's important because the general market needs leadership from this group.
 

Oil continues to tick higher. In general, this a good thing. The world economy is much better off with oil prices at a reasonable level and slowly ticking higher. But…

Rising oil prices are the heart of inflation, and with rising inflation comes higher rates. Higher rates are generally a good sign too, except for when stock price/earnings multiples are too high pushed up by artificially low rates.
 

Both the 10Y and 30Y rates are at important technical levels. These rates are probably going higher. What does it mean for the stock market?

I am not sure, but based on the way the Semiconductors are struggling, my thinking is that when these rates break out higher, the Semiconductors break down lower.

My fear of lower stock prices is currently greater than my fear of missing out on a rally.
 

The ECRI Index is starting to point higher again. We shouldn't make too much out of each weekly tick in this indicator, but, then again, pointing higher is a good thing. The ECRI Index continues to favor higher stock prices longer-term.
 

Bottom line: I am inclined to reduce overall stock market exposure, and to rotate the remaining stock holdings into the groups that are performing well.

One last look at the Semiconductors. This looks toppy.
 

Outlook Summary:

The long-term outlook is cautious.
The medium-term trend is down.
The short-term trend is down. 

Based on Friday's market, I am looking for signs of the next short-term uptrend. But the bigger picture of higher rates makes me think that the next short-term rally will be an opportunity to reduce stock market exposure again.

The medium-term trend for bond prices is down.