Dear Diary,

A man puts a single bullet in a revolver and spins the chamber. He puts the gun to his head. He pulls the trigger. Nothing happens.

He spins the chamber again. Gawkers watch. Speculators take bets on whether he will live or die.

Again, the man pulls the trigger. The gun clicks. But no discharge. He spins the chamber again.

Again, the speculators make their bets. They bet that he must be getting closer to the end of his game. Although the actual odds stay at 6-to-1, the speculators are now happy with 5-to-1 odds.

Again, he pulls the trigger without effect. The tension mounts. Another spin. More bets. Odds have fallen to 4-to-1.

Once again, he is lucky. Speculators are betting heavily now. Spotting an opportunity, he puts his little game on YouTube. Now, it's all over the internet.

More of the Same?

He gets paid $3 per ad view on his site. Millions of people are watching and making their bets.

And now, after three tries on a six-shooter revolver, they're betting his luck is running out. Odds fall to 3-to-1.

But one more time he pulls the trigger and nothing happens.

Now, speculators are beginning to wonder. He's awful lucky. Too lucky.

Maybe the bullet wasn't live? Maybe there's some trick involved? Or maybe he is being protected by divine intervention?

The odds stick at 3-to-1 on the fifth try.

“How lucky can this guy be?” people ask.

Another spin. Another round of bets. Another trigger-pull. And still… nothing.

This goes on for several more tries. Now, speculators begin to feel a pattern that they can't quite explain.

“More of the same” is beginning to seem more and more likely. They shift the odds. They give 10-to-1 odds that nothing will happen. Later, they are up to 20-to-1. More of the same seems almost inevitable.

Smart people don't know what to think. Dumb people don't think at all. And a shrewd speculator reasons as follows: