Econintersect: The American Trucking Associations' (ATA) trucking index decreased 0.5% following a downwardly revised increase of 0.8% in May.

From ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello:

With flat factory output and falling retail sales, I'm not surprised tonnage was soft in June. I also remain concerned over the elevated inventory-to-sales ratio for retailers, wholesalers, and manufacturers, which suggests soft tonnage in the months ahead until the ratio falls. I remain hopeful that the inventory correction will transpire this summer. When the correction ends, truck freight – helped by better personal consumption – will accelerate

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Compared with one year ago, seasonally adjusted tonnage increased 1.8%.

Econintersect tries to validate data across data sources. It appears this month that jobs growth says the trucking industry increased 0.5% month-over-month (red line). Please note using BLS employment data in real time is risky, as their data is normally backward adjusted significantly.

This data series is not transparent and therefore cannot be relied on. Please note that the ATA does not release an unadjusted data series (although they report the unadjusted value each month – but do not report revisions to this data) where Econintersect can make an independent evaluation. The data is apparently subject to significant backward revision. Not all trucking companies are members of the ATA, and therefore it is unknown if this data is a representative sampling of the trucking industry.