Trump Will Withdraw From Iran Deal? Let Sanctions Go Ahead? Crude Whipsawed

Yeah so on Monday evening we brought you a pretty comprehensive take on what's at stake Tuesday with Trump's Iran announcement. We highlighted some commentary from Barclays and went (back) over the apparent “sell the news” dynamic that unfolded Monday afternoon when oil careened lower following Trump's tweet and also amid a series of headlines from Barak Ravid of Israel's Channel 10 who, in his own series of tweets, said French, British, and German diplomats were nearing an agreement with negotiators on a possible deal designed to convince Trump not to withdraw.

Fast forward to Tuesday morning and crude plunged anew breaking below $68 just a day after breaching $70 for the first time since 2014. The apparent catalyst was an article from CNN, the gist of which is this:

President Donald Trump is expected to announce on Tuesday he will allow sanctions to go forward on Iran, a first step toward withdrawing from the touchstone nuclear agreement negotiated by his predecessor, according to a US official and a person familiar with the plan.

However, the sanctions could take months to go into effect as the US government develops guidance for companies and banks. The officials cautioned nothing is final until Trump makes his announcement from the Diplomatic Room of the White House at 2 p.m. ET, and held out the possibility that he could change course.

[…]

The sanctions Trump is expected to allow to move forward target Iran's oil exports. For now he's not expected to impose additional sanctions.

The decision would strike a blow to the nuclear deal, but it's not clear it would cause the entire agreement to collapse. The other signatories to the plan, including Germany, France and the UK, have said they will maintain their commitments.

Those bolded bits are probably contributing to the readily apparent “sell the news” mood that had WTI down more than 4% at one point:

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