On Monday, the BEA reported income and consumption expenditures:
Personal income increased $23.7 billion, or 0.2 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $23.7 billion, or 0.2 percent, in February, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $11.0 billion, or 0.1 percent.In January, personal income increased $72.7 billion, or 0.5 percent, DPI increased $57.2 billion, or 0.4 percent, and PCE increased $10.7 billion, or 0.1 percent, based on revised estimates.
Real PCE — PCE adjusted to remove price changes — increased 0.2 percent in February, in contrast to a decrease of less than 0.1 percent in January.Purchases of durable goods increased 0.3 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.8 percent.Purchases of motor vehicles and parts accounted for about half of the increase. Purchases of nondurable goods decreased 0.3 percent in February, compared with a decrease of 0.1 percent in January.Purchases of services increased 0.3 percent, compared with an increase of 0.1 percent.
The NBER uses personal income less transfer payments to date recessions.The number continues increasing:
The following table shows the monthly change in real PCEs:
Goods purchases contracted for the last three months, with two negative months each from durable and non-durable purchases.Service expenditures continue at a moderate pace.
The ISM manufacturing index was bullish. The headline number increased 2.3 points to 51.8. The best news was the surge in new orders, which rose a strong 6.8, printing at 58.3.The production number increased 2.5 points to 55.3.Perhaps most importantly, the anecdotal comments were very strong:
