Market sentiment soured towards the end of last week, as tensions about tariffs escalated. I see some EUR gains at the beginning of this week as risk appetite returns.
This week, the key data releases will be on inflation. In the eurozone, we expect to see an acceleration in many countries, which will, however, be mostly due to calendar effects and hence, should not have a strong impact on the inflation outlook.
These are my trades today:
EUR/USD
Trading strategy: Long
Open: 1.2330
Target: 1.2550
Stop-loss: 1.2245
Recommended size: 2.11 mini lots per $10,000 in your account
Short analysis: The EUR/USD bias remains on the upside as bulls clear the falling trendline, which has been taken off the February peak. The trendline now comes in at 1.2349, a daily close above this level will mean bulls have tightened their grip on the market further. We remain EUR/USD long.
GBP/USD
Trading strategy: Long
Open: 1.4085
Target: 1.4300
Stop-loss: 1.3985
Recommended size: 2.00 mini lots per $10,000 in your account
Short analysis: The GBP/USD bias remains on the upside for a test of the 2018 1.4346 peak. 30-day lower and upper bollinger-bands are diverging, reinforcing the volatile nature of GBP/USD. This means an element of caution is advised for those entering this market.
USD/JPY
Trading strategy: Short
Open: 106.00
Target: 1004.00
Stop-loss: 106.00 (lowered from 107.00)
Recommended size: 2.12 mini lots per $10,000 in your account
Short analysis: The USD/JPY is oversold on the daily chart as it trades circa the 30-day lower bollinger-band. The risk is growing for a rebound, the scope is for a recovery to the 105.96 Fibonacci level, 23.6% retrace of the 110.48 to 104.56 fall. We have locked in profit at 106.00.
USD/CAD
Trading strategy: Short
Open: 1.2900
Target: 1.2600
Stop-loss: 1.3050
Recommended size: 1.72 mini lots per $10,000 in your account
Short analysis: The USD/CAD fell to 1.2825 low on Friday after Canadian CPI beat expectations. The pair remains below 23.6% retrace of February-March rally (1.2919) and below 21-day SMA (1.2899) now.
