The collapse in oil prices yesterday pushed USDCAD to the top of its recent range at 1.3500. With crude still stuck at the $50/bbl and further weakness likely the loonie could push through the key 1.3500 resistance level as traders begin to worry about the impact of lower oil prices on the Canadian economy. But push higher may not have much traction especially if oil finds support at the $45/bbl level.
The Canadian economy is no longer so dependent on resource prices and has shown remarkable resilience in the wake of lower oil prices. Tomorrow the market will get a look at Canadian CPI data and if inflation numbers come in hotter than the 0.4% projected rate, USD/CAD 1.3500 could prove to be the cap to this rally as the pair turns back off the highs of the range towards support at 1.3200.
