We'll have new specific ideas coming soon, but the basic themes for investors remain consistent. Entering 2015, there are several key ideas for individual investors to keep in mind. Republicans will formally take control of both the House and the Senate in a few short days – resist the temptation to wax political. Instead, think about what actions are more likely now, and how that could impact your portfolio. With Yellen tapering off QE3 (and no immediate market collapse coming as a result), think back to our “Three Fearless Forecasts.” Remember that fighting the Fed is a losing proposition. Above all else, understand that the market climbs a Wall of Worry. We've had a lot of very serious issues crop up in 2014, but we've also had the most significant crises averted. Leaders in both business and political spheres are doing their best to avoid catastrophe, and they're successful more often than not.
I try to refresh the concepts and ideas each week, emphasizing the best themes from my reading. My overall recommendations do not change as rapidly – nor should they. Investors should not be switching around their choices every week.
One of my major themes for the year has been the “great rotation” from bonds to stocks. This has three aspects:
This rotation is just getting started. Our own themes are the same, but I will also do a “year ahead” preview pretty soon.
Here is a summary of our own current recommendations for the individual investor.