Wholesale Inventories rose 0.1% MoM (more than expected and the most in 7 months) and Sales dropped 1.0% MoM (notably less than expected and weakest in 7 months) sending the inventory-to-sales ratio to 1.31x – new cycle highs – and flashing the brightest recession warning yet. With inventories up 4.2% YoY and Sales down 4.5% YoY, the stunning reality is the absolute dollar spread between inventories and sales has never been bigger.

Inventories keep rising more than expected and sales keep missing…

Sending the Inventories-to-Sales Ratio is firmly in recession territory…

The annual change in these two critical time series screams one thing: inventory liquidation or at least remarking far lower:

In absolute terms the dollar difference between wholesale inventories and sales has never been bigger.