The headlines say wholesale sales declined and inventories grew. This data series is very noisy, and continues on a roller coaster of good and bad data. Because of this noise, the best way to look at this series may be the unadjusted data three month rolling averages which decelerated for the fourth month in a row. The data for wholesale trade was terrible this month but it could have been caused by a changing seasonal demand.
The unadjusted rolling averages seem a little soft this month – but it could just be a new change in wholesale and associated warehousing for the holiday season. [note that Econintersect analysis is year-over-year – so that the analysis is based on the change from one year ago.] Econintersect Analysis:
Year-over-Year Sales – Unadjusted (blue line), Unadjusted but Inflation Adjusted (red line), 3 month Rolling Averages (yellow line)
US Census Headlines based on seasonally adjusted data:
