Demand for gold declined 7 percent in Q1 2018 while gold supply increased. But the price did not fall. What does it all mean for the gold market?
Gold Demand Dwindles in Q1 2018
We are always ahead of other analysts. Last week, the World Gold Council released a new edition of its quarterly report on gold demand. At the same time, we published a summary of the developments in the gold market in the first four months of 2018. But let's analyze the WGC report.
The crucial finding is that gold demand plunged 12 percent from 1,105.9 tons in the preceding quarter to 973.5 tons in the first quarter of 2018. Compared to Q1 2017, the demand for gold dropped 7 percent, the lowest Q1 since 2008, as one can see in the chart below.
Chart 1: Gold demand over the last ten years (source: WGC).
The decline was mainly caused by a fall in investment demand. Indeed, ETF inflows of 32.4 tons were down 66 percent from Q1 2017. It shouldn't be surprising given that Q1 2018 was a period of relatively stable gold prices and rising interest rates, while the beginning of 2017 was a time when negative German yields reached a record low.
However, the inflows into gold ETFs gathered some pace compared with the second half of 2017 (13.2 tons in Q3 and 28.9 tons in Q4). It indicates that the geopolitical concerns and the sudden return of volatility to global financial markets encouraged U.S. investors to seek refuge in gold. But investors should be aware that the recent tensions between U.S. and Iran failed to boost the price of gold.
WCG's Flawed Analysis
You can learn some interesting things from the WGC report. There is no doubt about it. You can find out that global jewelry demand was roughly flat, central bank demand surged 42 percent year-over-year, and technology demand continued to improve (thanks to the increased use of gold in electronics). Fair enough. But the whole analysis is fundamentally flawed. Why? Well, the fatal error is that the WGC treats gold as commodity. It meticulously calculates the quarterly demand and supply, to determine the “balance” and to predict the future price movements.
