Will We Hold It Wednesday – Fed Edition

What a wild ride yesterday was!

As we predicted, we opened down half a point and then raced all the way up to our strong bounce lines before tumbling back to give up all of those gains and more – a major technical failure for the markets but a huge profit for anyone who followed our trade ideas in the morning post.  

SPY  5  MINUTE

Using the bounce lines we published early in the morning for the Futures trades gave the following outcomes on that morning spike:

  • Dow (/YM) Futures 17,000 to 17,350 for a$1,750 per contract gain  
  • S&P (/ES) Futures 1,965 to 2,010 for a$2,250 per contract gain
  • Nasdaq (/NQ) Futures 4,120 to 4,180 for a $1,200 per contract gain
  • Russell (/TF) Futures 1,130 to 1,155 for a $2,500 per contract gain
  • I called the top in our Live Member Chat Room at 11:42 and, since we had made a public pick in the morning, I also tweeted out the note to take profits for our followers (and on our page, of course).  That's how we pick up a little spare change in the Futures while we wait for our bigger positions to play out.  

    In fact, we also cashed in a couple of our bearish positions on DXD and SQQQ that were up significantly on yesterday's drop, leaving us a little bit less bearish ahead of the Fed – just in case they actually do something today that boosts the markets.  We don't really expect it, but not taking 100% gains off the table is just foolish – we can always find new hedges to cover our longs with.

    As you can see, our Short-Term Portfolio finished the day up 96.5%, a gain of $22,310 from Monday's close so of course we wanted to take some off the table.  Our cash position has increased by $46,500, which was one of our primary goals (getting to mainly cash) into the holidays, which are just 7 days away now.  All in all – perfectly timed this year!  

    We're still bearish but it's more of a long-term bearish with some April TZA calls and a June SQQQ bull call spread that can pay us up to $90,000 in a significant downturn.  Not that we hope that will happen, the spread only cost us net $3,800 because we timed our entry perfectly and now we have covered our bullish plays into the second quarter of next year.  

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